Indonesia plans to execute B40 in January

In that case, rates may rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says

B40 will need extra 3 mln lots feedstock, GAPKI says

Malaysia palm oil criteria at greatest given that mid-2022

India may withdraw import tax hike in the middle of inflation, Mistry says

(Adds analyst remarks, updates Malaysia's palm oil benchmark cost)

By Bernadette Christina

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is forecast to recover in 2025 after an anticipated drop this year, but costs are anticipated to stay raised due to planned expansion of the country's biodiesel required, market experts stated.

The palm oil benchmark price in Malaysia has actually risen more than 35% this year, raised by slow output and Indonesia's strategy to increase the compulsory domestic biodiesel mix to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to minimize fuel imports.

Palm oil output next year in leading producer Indonesia is anticipated to recover by 1.5 million metric lots compared with an estimated drop of simply over a million lots this year, Julian McGill, handling director at Glenauk Economics, informed the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.

Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research study company Oil World, stated he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million tons next year after a 2.5 million heap drop in 2024.

While Indonesia's output is anticipated to improve, provide from elsewhere and of other veggie oils is seen tightening up.

Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is anticipated to dip somewhat next year after increasing by an approximated 1 million lots in 2024.

"We would require a healing in palm in 2025 due to the fact that combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are declining," Mielke stated.

'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE

The price surge in palm oil in the past seven weeks has actually been "frightening" for purchasers, Mielke said, adding that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia enforces the so-called B40 policy.

The Indonesia Palm Oil Association said additional feedstock of around 3 million heaps will be needed for B40 execution, eroding export supply.

The current palm oil premium has actually currently caused palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke added.

Malaysian palm oil prices are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric ton in 2025, McGill of Glenauk approximated.

Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest because mid-2022.

"Sentiment right now is red-hot and very bullish, we need to beware," stated Dorab Mistry, director at Indian durable goods company Godrej International.

He forecast the Malaysian price around 5,000 ringgit and above till June 2025.

Mielke and Mistry advised Indonesia to

think about postponing

B40 application on concern about its effect on food consumers.

Meanwhile, Mistry anticipated leading palm oil importer India to withdraw its

import duty walking

enforced from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy; Editing by John Mair, Jane Merriman and Daren Butler)